魔鬼经济学

评分:
6.0 还行

原名:Freakonomics又名:

分类:纪录片 /  美国  2010 

简介: 《魔鬼经济学》中确立了一个有悖于传统智慧的观点:如果说伦理道德代表了我们心目中理

更新时间:2015-03-20

魔鬼经济学影评:作为一部纪录片还是比较失败的

这个片子最大缺点就是太散,总共有6个导演,5个制作团队来完成:
1. Intro & Transitional Segments (including Real Estate, Parenting, Cheating, Cause & Effect, Incentives) 1 director
2. A Roshanda by Any Other Name 1 director
3. Pure Corruption 1 director
4. It’s Not Always A Wonderful Life 1 director
5. Can you bribe a 9th grader to succeed? 2 directors

下面为主要内容及观感,有兴趣的可以挑相应电影片段来看:
0. Real Estate
Does real estate agent really represent your interest?
Incentives matter!!! If you can figure out what people’s incentives are, you have a good chance of guessing how they are going to behave.

1. Parenting (4’26’’-)
Levitt explains what he does in research: to figure out tricky ways to get a causality. There’s a difference between causality and correlation.

2. A Roshanda by Any Other Name
(莎翁名句:A rose by any other name would smell as sweet.)
(出自原书第六章)
Does name matter? Does name define your destiny?

Resume experiment: African American names vs. White names
View point: Name may not define your destiny but it can dictate the ways other ppl perceive you.

3. Cheating
(3&4出自原书第一章:教师和相扑运动员有何相似之处?)
Teachers could cheat.

4. Pure Corruption (24’20’’-47’48’’)
Corruption in the Sumo World with reference to Bernie Madoff (corruption in the realm of high finances)
*误译:S.E.C (not S.C.C)
很像犯罪纪实片,有点故弄玄虚之感。本可以独立成片的题材,过短而语嫣不详。日本文化对于西方观众/读者本身具有神秘吸引力。也提到了日本和美国媒体的self-censorship,有一定自我批判的意味。

Levitt: The only way to combat corruption is to change rules and undo corruption incentives, unleash more investigative reporters and to develop strong protections for whistle blowers.

5. Cause & Effect (47’49’’-49’10’’)
Does ice cream cause polio?

6. It’s Not Always a Wonderful Life (出自原书第四章)
Reasons why crime rates drop considerably in the 1990s?
观感: 全片最有意思和最令人惊奇的发现。

6 most popular explanations (with authors’ verdict): More innovative policing (0%), harsher criminal policing (30%), changes in the crack market (15%), increase gun control, a strong economy, more police on the street (the last three about 10% in total).
(具体怎么得到这些数字的没有解释,这也许是有经济学家批评两位作者是在描述计量经济学的原因,原书中是不是也没有解释?)

Almost half of the drop left unexplained. Levitt’s answer: Roe vs. Wade (the legalized abortion in 1970s)
Unwanted children were not born…
“Unintended consequence of legalized abortion”

关于这个结论的争论(译自维基百科):
书出版之后Boston Fed的经济学家指出Levitt原论文中的统计错误,改正这些错误后不能得到堕胎合法化是犯罪率降低原因的结论。Levitt回应,Boston Fed经济学家的改正由于存在严重的衰减偏误(attenuation bias)也是有缺陷的,改正自己原文的错误后,流产和犯罪之间的联系较弱,但仍然统计显著。Boston Fed的那两位经济学家很快提供了反驳:即使使用Levitt建议的方法来分析数据,该数据不显示流产率和犯罪率呈正相关关系。他们很快指出,这并不否定Levitt的论文,并强调由于该数据是如此混乱和不完整,很可能甚至是无法证明或反驳Levitt他们的结论。

7. Incentives
How Levitt failed to potty-train his daughter with her favorite M&M chocolates within three days.

8. Can a 9th grader be bribed to succeed?
Interesting (but costly) experiment again!

观感:This is the most touching part of the movie and it sort of resonates with the segment on Parenting. But again the authors’ view on parents’ role in a child’s growth is ambiguous.

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