人类星球

这盆冷水是该泼
Planet of the Humans
4/30/2020

Michael Moore监制和推广，新能源的话题又和职业相关，纪录片在Youtube上免费播放，于是就在周四晚找空看了，反正打算周五的工作节奏减缓一点。

看完后，看到一条高评的Youtube用户留言，引用甘地曾说的话："The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed."

首先要指出的是，纪录片对于科学技术话题的探讨很浅很不严谨，说得好像国家层面的政策制定者、和从事具体研究的科技从业者也都无脑，像是逐利的资本家的帮凶或盲从者。其实哪有那么简单呢？Life cycle analysis这个概念已经在媒体和通俗读物中有一定的普及，在纪录片中也有相关的讨论、却从未被正式提及和严肃探讨。我搜索renewable energy life cycle analysis，看到NREL做的工作和结论（https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/life-cycle-assessment.html）：

Like the published data, the harmonized data showed that life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from solar, wind, and nuclear technologies are considerably lower and less variable than emissions from technologies powered by combustion-based natural gas and coal.

Comparison of as-published life cycle GHG emission estimates for electricity generation technologies. The impacts of the land use change are

我无意于做更多更深入的检索，如果足够感兴趣我也许会去读几本这个话题的书吧。但我的态度是对这些迎面来的、进行过艺术加工的、“带情绪”“带节奏”的信息保持警惕。

在此之外，纪录片的这盆冷水是该泼。片中提到的一些新能源fails比如技术造价更新迅速的太阳能板、外观震撼实际产能存疑的Ivanpah concentrated solar power沙漠镜面工程是我看过报道的，也有一些是我未曾关注的比如用树木来产能的biomass plants。我想这个纪录片给我的三点思考是：（1）public trust不可少。Scientists, technologiests, developers这些人在自己的小圈子里pat each other on the back沾沾自喜于自己在做造福人类的大好事，与对自己的山水有感情、对新的机器技术存疑的普通民众脱节，这种脱节是加深不信任和反感（"we are being fed a lie"是一种很糟糕的情绪），造成滋生conspiracy theory的土壤。（2）探讨、监管、定期回顾总结lessons learned、做出相应的scale back/up的调整不可少，不然会造成在一个错误的轨道上走太远。比如biomass plants，烧什么——只烧废弃的、不再有工业用途的旧木头？还是在合理规划下烧一部分砍伐的树木？应该占某一个州、某一块地区的能源产量的多少？我想相关政策制定的政府部门是在做这些事情的，让他们作为一道关卡，避免资产看到有政策扶持、有利可图就蜂拥而至。（3）短期利益驱使的资本家企业家们去做这些有悖于全体地球居民长期福祉的事，他们是容易被挑出来批斗的那一小撮人。可是普通人就完全无辜吗？企业家们创造的就业岗位我们欣然接受，舒适便捷的现代生活方式我们无法拒绝。就像《Margin Call》里一针见血地指出的：

If you really want to do this with your life you have to believe that you're necessary, and you are. People want to live like this with their cars and their big fucking houses they can't even pay for - then you're necessary. The only reason people get to continue living like kings is because we've got our fingers on the scales and we're tipping in their favor. I take my hand off, well then the whole world gets really fucking fair really fucking quick and nobody actually wants that. They say they do, but they really don't. They want what we have to give but they also want to play innocent and pretend they have no idea where it actually came from; and that's more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so fuck 'em.

不同程度的，我们都在compartmentalize，对人类对地球、对彼此的种种罪行睁一只眼闭一只眼，好可以心安理得地去过另一天。天真呀，愚蠢呀，那些在Earth Day concert上欢呼雀跃的人。