【从“先知先觉者”的角度引入——他们是怎么发现的】
1.一部分人从数字发现了征兆:
Dr.Burry确实很聪明地从数据中发现了问题,而且利用了500M的CDS做空
“Mark is studying so hard because he's looking for inconsistencies in the word of God! ” “So has he found any?”这母亲的回答哈哈哈
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哈哈哈这段简直笑疯~
2.另一部分人市场调研:
1)to people:past due notice发现房东欠房贷三个月了,登记用的还是狗的名字。
2)to banks:ninja loans都出来了 无收入证明也可贷款买房,这些都是先兆
3)私妓:有五座房产都做了refinance。
终于有了solid的结论“Hey,there's a bubble"
4)标普、穆迪等评级机构:不给银行评3A就去找竞争对手,没想到原来你竟然是这样的穆迪~!
5) 媒体:即使比大如WSJ也有问题
【影片拍的挺好玩】
比如听着音乐没去厕所的独眼灵魂鼓手Dr.Burry;
被突然出现的鳄鱼吓尿的Mark手下;
发现交易对手是自己的母公司morgan stanley一脸懵逼表情;
Mark一边演讲着预言,台下一边看着预言实现——贝尔的股票一泻千里;
“Do you smell that? I smell money.”
引用的马克吐温和村上春树两句话都很契合主题;
最后,wallstreet受到什么惩罚了?blablabla的小魔仙幻想. Well, just kidding.
【Work&Home】
Michael Burry和Mark对待家人,还是都能与工作分开工作的
Michael:
“Yes honey, yeah baby, all fine”
"I met my wife on match.com. My profile said that I'm a medical student with only one eye, an awkward social manner and 145 thousand dollars in student loans. She wrote back, you're just what I've been looking for.
People choose authorities to tell them how to value things. But not because of facts or results. They chose it because it seems authoritative, and familiar! And I'm not, and never have been...familiar.
So I've come to the solemn realization that I must close down the fund.
Sincerely, Michael J. Burry MD."
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All in all,长时间投入和坚持正确的东西是迷人的。
尽管历史会一遍遍螺旋重演,大流的进展及其缓慢。
片尾几个注解还是挺感人的,有大变后对自己的塑造;有日子如车轮正常向前;有试图以正抗邪仍然被嘲笑的案例;而最早发现的天才除了赚钱外想提高一个境界回报社会,却无人问津。
Well, c'est la vie. 相比之下,“Know 100 percent”的局外人Ben lives with his wife on a large orchard, they have plenty of seeds最为感人至深。